What the data shows
## Odisha Palm Oil — Monsoon Blackout Status Update
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### Where We Are Right Now
Cloud blackout is active. Your last valid observation was **2026-05-14** (NDVI 0.4104). Everything from late May onward is obscured — this aligns exactly with Odisha's Bay of Bengal monsoon onset, typically mid-May through September. Based on your historical baseline pattern, expect cloud gaps to persist through at least September, with partial clearing possible in October.
**No anomaly is flagged. Severity is normal.** This is consistent with the pre-blackout trend.
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### Historical Baseline Character (251 scenes, 5 years)
Your baseline has a clear seasonal signature:
- **Jan–Mar trough:** Baseline drops to 0.22–0.39 — this is the intercrop low season (banana dormancy + dry stress) - **Sep peak:** Baseline hits **0.521** (2026-09-17) — post-monsoon flush, historically the farm's greenest point - **Nov–Dec plateau:** 0.42–0.46, stable mature canopy period - **Annual average:** ~0.39–0.41
**Critical caveat:** All pre-April 2026 baseline values reflect the 1:1 palm+banana intercrop. The September 0.521 peak, the January troughs — those are banana-inclusive numbers. Your pure-palm baseline is being established right now, starting from the April 2026 readings (0.415–0.444). That four-week window before cloud blackout is currently your only pure-palm reference.
**Is the baseline healthy or declining?** The historical trend shows no long-term structural decline — the apparent stress in 2023 was confirmed as cyclone-related banana collapse, not systemic palm deterioration. SAR structural data (VH −12.4 dB, stable across 4 passes) corroborates healthy palm architecture. The baseline is **stable**, not declining.
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### Pre-Blackout Trend: What the Last 10 Weeks Showed
| Period | NDVI | vs. Baseline | Signal | |--------|------|--------------|--------| | Jan 8 | 0.310 | −22% below | Seasonal low, expected | | Feb 5 | 0.438 | +16% above | Recovery underway | | Apr 2 | 0.444 | +46
## Odisha Palm Oil — Monsoon Blackout Status Update --- ### Where We Are Right Now Cloud blackout is active. Your last valid observation was **2026-05-14** (NDVI 0.4104). Everything from late May onward is obscured — this aligns exactly with Odisha's Bay of Bengal monsoon onset, typically mid-May through September. Based on your historical baseline pattern, expect cloud gaps to persist through at least September, with partial clearing possible in October. **No anomaly is flagged. Severity is
Vegetation index trajectories
Orange = target season · Dashed = 5-year baseline · Grey = cloud blackout
Where in the field is the stress?
